Macroeconomy & Globalization

In our annual special issue on emerging markets, we take a macro and regional view of the new realities (yes, more than one) that have developed over the past year. There are quite a few surprises.

Central Europe and the Southeast revive, while the CIS struggles with low oil prices and sanctions.

Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg call on old and new strengths to jump-start growth.

Asia’s emerging economies fight to diversify from China and the US.

Canada
The Liberal Party representatives who will form Canada’s next government will field several key cabinet posts. Rookie MP Bill Morneau is taking one of the most coveted—minister of Finance.

An analytical exercise that was moderately popular before the financial crisis has become a mandatory task in the post-crisis years.

Developing countries have long sought a greater voice in running the IMF and World Bank. The rise of rival development banks gives them more options—and more leverage.

Guatemala’s political turmoil, with parties deadlocked in Parliament, a runoff election looming and corruption scandals exploding, means the government will operate in a kind of suspended animation until 2016.

No region of the world has generated an average annual growth rate of 5.5% over the past 20 years—except Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, GDP has expanded by 40% since 2009.

After a summer of heavy turbulence in global financial markets, the new season starts with the seemingly endless story of when the Federal Reserve Board will raise interest rates. Although the Fed put off the move in September, the US central bank will up rates eventually, most likely at its next meeting in December. The hike will undoubtedly force some countries to shift monetary policies.

Emerging nations are replacing the Americas as the continent’s largest trading partners.         

More than a decade ago, the Fed tried to pump life into the faltering US economy. In 2008, the financial markets crashed. There is a connection.

Saudi Arabia needs a strategy to diversify its oil-based economy. Can change come fast enough?

Newsmakers | China
At the beginning of September, the fledgling Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank took an important step forward with the appointment of its first president.
 

Regional Report | Latin America
The large economies on the east coast of Latin America—Brazil, Venezuela and Argentina—are slumping badly. Things are far different out west.

Capital Outflows | The meltdown in China’s stock market this summer and steep falls in many emerging markets currencies led some investors to wonder if another 1997 Asian crisis was brewing.

Newsmakers | Japan
Despite a less-than-stellar performance at the helm of the country, Japanese prime minister Shinzō Abe was reelected in September to a second three-year term as the president of his Liberal Democratic Party.

Compared with several other markets in the region, Peru’s economy is rock-solid.

Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, visited Global Finance on September 10, just as Standard & Poor’s cut Brazil’s public debt to junk level. We asked him about the outlook for that country and other emerging markets.

Commodities | Oil prices have only slightly recovered from a new record low set at the end of August. But they are still 60% below their peak of 2014, which is putting pressure on US oil companies, with many pundits predicting a rapid overhaul of the industry.